Sitting MPs wagered to win: Centrebet

Early betting shows sitting MPs of both parties in NSW marginal electorates are favoured to retain their seats in the August 21 federal election.


Labor MP and former journalist Maxine McKew holds the Sydney seat of Bennelong by just 1.4 per cent after ousting then prime minister John Howard in the 2007 election.

Centrebet on Friday afternoon was paying $1.48 for Labor to win, with Liberal candidate and former tennis star John Alexander slipping to $2.50.

The bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, on the NSW far south coast, has been taken by the election-winning party in every poll since 1972.

Early betting has put sitting Labor MP Mike Kelly at $1.38 – still ahead of Liberal candidate and former Peter Costello staffer David Gazard who has improved from $3.05 to $2.77.

Former opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull is set to retain Wentworth, in Sydney’s east, as favourite at $1.17.

Labor candidate Steven Lewis, a solicitor, has fallen farther behind Mr Turnbull, slipping to $4.40 on Friday afternoon.

Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker holds the north coast seat of Cowper by just 1.2 per cent but a flood of money, including one bet of $10,000, has made him the favourite at $1.38.

In the adjacent seat of Page, held by Labor with a 2.4 per cent margin, incumbent Labor MP Janelle Saffin is the favourite at $1.42.

On the Central Coast, Liberal MP Bob Baldwin holds Paterson with only a 0.6 per cent margin but is favoured at $1.66 over Labor candidate Jim Arneman, who trails narrowly behind at $2.01.

Sitting Labor MP Craig Thompson holds Dobell, also on the Central Coast, by 3.9 per cent and leads with a betting edge of $1.60.

Labor holds the neighbouring seat of Robertson by just 0.10 per cent, but recent betting has put Liberal candidate Darren Jameson in front at $1.60.

Sitting MP Belinda Neal was dumped by Labor for university professor Deborah O’Neill, who trails Jameson at $2.20.

The western Sydney seat of Macquarie is expected to fall to the Liberals, with former Greenway MP Louise Marcus the favourite at $1.80.

Labor holds Macquarie by only 0.3 per cent, following an electoral redistribution after the 2007 election.